Wall Street Analysts Turn Bearish on Gold After a Weak Jobs Report, While Retail Traders Stay Positive

Gold ended last week at roughly $4,140 per ounce, down about 3.1% over five sessions, and the people who forecast prices for a living have changed their tone. According to the latest weekly survey from Kitco, only 3 of 13 Wall Street analysts expect gold to rise in the coming week, while 6 expect it to fall and 4 are undecided. Main Street traders, polled at the same time, lean the other way. The gap between those two groups is the most useful piece of information in this week's market, and it deserves a careful read before anyone draws a conclusion about direction.

What the survey actually found

The numbers come from Kitco's weekly gold survey, published on 2 October. Among the 13 Wall Street participants, 23% were bullish, 46% were bearish and 31% were neutral. Among the 182 retail respondents, 47% were bullish, 33% were bearish and 20% were neutral. Wall Street is therefore bearish by a wide margin, while Main Street keeps a bullish majority of its own. Only a few weeks ago the same survey showed professional analysts overwhelmingly positive, so the swing in sentiment has been fast.

Spot gold traded between a high of $4,280.56 on Monday and a low of $4,110.95 on Thursday, a range of nearly $170 inside one week. That is a large move for a metal that spent much of the summer trending steadily higher. The price now sits around 26% below the record of $5,598.58 reached in late January, which puts last week's slide into context. It is a deep pullback from the peak, even though the longer-term trend since 2024 remains well above where gold traded two years ago.

Why a weak jobs report did not help gold

The September payrolls report showed only 29,000 jobs added, far below the roughly 90,000 economists expected, and it came with downward revisions to the July and August figures. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. In a normal market, weaker employment lowers the odds of further interest rate increases, and lower rates tend to support gold because the metal pays no interest. Gold did bounce at first, yet it finished the week lower.

Kitco's panel offered several explanations. Treasury yields were rising and the US dollar was firm, two forces that usually weigh on bullion. Announcements about the US strategic petroleum reserve also pushed energy and inflation expectations around. Analyst Sean Lusk described the market reaction as illogical and said rallies are hard to sustain at the moment. In other words, the data pointed one way and the price went the other, which usually signals that traders were already positioned for a different outcome and were using the news to adjust.

The case for a rebound

Not every analyst in the survey is cautious. Marc Chandler said he expects higher prices if gold can break above the $4,280 to $4,300 zone, which was the top of last week's range. Adrian Day expects gold to be a little lower but not for long. Rich Checkan pointed out that a lower probability of a rate increase should help the metal over time. According to CME FedWatch data cited in market reports, the probability of a Fed hike on 28 October has dropped to about 22%, from roughly 70% before the jobs data. That is a large shift in expectations, and it removes one of the biggest headwinds gold has faced since the Fed raised rates last month.

Market reports from Bloomberg on Monday showed gold edging higher as traders continued to weigh the jobs data against the rate outlook. Trading Economics listed spot gold near $4,167 on 5 October, up about 0.6% on the day. The recovery is modest, and it leaves the metal in a holding pattern ahead of several important data releases.

The bearish scenario

The more cautious view comes from Alex Kuptsikevich, who warned that gold could test the $4,000 level again if negative factors persist. He compared the current environment with the debt-crisis period of 2011 to 2012, when gold climbed to a record, then spent more than a year consolidating and falling before it found a base. The comparison is a warning about patience, not a prediction of collapse. A market can stay choppy for many months even when the long-term story, such as sustained central bank buying, remains intact.

Gold also found support last week near the eight-week low, as FXStreet reported when it described gold rebounding from that level while traders weighed the Fed's path. The $4,110 to $4,140 area has now been tested twice in the space of a week, and many chart watchers treat repeated tests of one level as a sign that buyers are present there.

Dates that will move the price

Three events are scheduled before the Fed meets. The ISM Services PMI and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes arrive this week, and the minutes will show how deeply officials discussed another rate increase. The consumer price index report follows on 14 October, and it is the single most important number ahead of the 28 October decision. A hot inflation reading could revive hike expectations and push gold toward $4,000, while a soft one could confirm the pause and open the way to the $4,280 to $4,300 resistance zone that Chandler highlighted.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, also due this week, will add a read on inflation expectations among households. Those expectations matter to the Fed because they influence how aggressively it feels it must respond.

What the split means for physical holders

A bearish analyst majority and a bullish retail majority is an unusual setup, and history offers no clean rule for which side wins. Analysts tend to extrapolate recent price action, so a 3% weekly drop makes them cautious. Retail buyers often treat dips as entry points. Both groups can be right over different time frames. For people who hold 999 or 916 gold as a long-term store of value, weekly sentiment surveys carry less weight than the structural factors: central banks continue to add to reserves, real yields are influenced by inflation, and the metal remains well above its levels of two years ago.

What the survey does show is that volatility is high. A $170 weekly range in an asset priced above $4,000 means a swing of more than 4% from low to high. Buyers who plan purchases in stages, rather than in one lump sum, reduce the risk of committing everything at a local top. Checking the spot price, the dealer's buyback terms and the workmanship charge on each item before purchasing remains sound practice at any price level.

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